Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 11

Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

· Tupras Stadium, Istanbul

Alin prediction Beşiktaş to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BeşiktaşDrawGençlerbirliği S.K.
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.41.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Beşiktaş is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Beşiktaş1.24 Draw7.55 Gençlerbirliği S.K.13.10

Price as of

Expected return at 1.24: -9.9% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. preview

Beşiktaş faces Gençlerbirliği S.K. with a 72% chance of winning, while the visitors have just an 11% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 2.40 for Beşiktaş and 1.24 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. With a strong 70% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, the match could see multiple goals.

However, Beşiktaş's recent form shows some inconsistency with D-W-D-L-W-W, while Gençlerbirliği S.K. has struggled, recording W-L-L-D-L-L. The head-to-head record is even, with each team winning once in their last two encounters. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable despite Beşiktaş's strong probabilities.

Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBeşiktaşDrawGençlerbirliği S.K.
Model59%20%21%
Market77%14%8%
Published73%16%12%
Edge-5%+2%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.41.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Beşiktaş, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.32Now 1.21 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Beşiktaş1.321.21-0.11
Draw5.306.50+1.20
Gençlerbirliği S.K.9.0011.00+2.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.42Beşiktaş
1.41Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Total expected goals
3.82
Attack rating (Beşiktaş / Gençlerbirliği S.K.)
1.41 / 1.02
Defence rating (Beşiktaş / Gençlerbirliği S.K.)
1.13 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 2.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 1 4.5% 8.2% 5.2% 2.5% 1.2% 2 6.4% 9.0% 6.3% 3.0% 1.4% 3 5.1% 7.2% 5.1% 2.4% 1.1% 4+ 5.5% 7.7% 5.4% 2.6% 1.2%

Rows: Beşiktaş goals. Columns: Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Beşiktaş73%1.38
Draw16%6.31
Gençlerbirliği S.K.12%8.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.36
Under 2.526%3.77
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.44
No30%3.28
Double chance1X (Beşiktaş or draw)88%1.13
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.)27%3.66
Handicap -1Beşiktaş win by 2+39%2.59
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. recent form

Beşiktaş 2W 2D 2L
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Beşiktaş at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.80
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
2.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Beşiktaş at home only, Gençlerbirliği S.K. away only.

Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Beşiktaş 1 · draws 0 · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.

BeşiktaşDrawsGençlerbirliği S.K.
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Gençlerbirliği S.K.0-2BeşiktaşSüper Lig
2025-10-18Beşiktaş1-2Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Beşiktaş to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Beşiktaş
Our pick: Beşiktaş to win 18+ Bet Now