Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa, the 1X2 probabilities show Kasımpaşa at 39%, while Gaziantep FK sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at 11%. Kasımpaşa's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, contrasting with Gaziantep FK's streak of 5 losses and 1 draw.
The expected goals indicate Gaziantep FK at 0.97 and Kasımpaşa at 1.68, suggesting a potential advantage for Kasımpaşa. However, both teams to score is at 52%, and with Gaziantep FK's past performance against Kasımpaşa showing 3 wins, they could still find a way to compete effectively.
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa: model vs market
| Source | Gaziantep FK | Draw | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 27% | 53% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kasımpaşa below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.73, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kasımpaşa, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep FK | 2.79 | 2.50 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.40 | -0.05 |
| Kasımpaşa | 2.42 | 2.60 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Gaziantep FK / Kasımpaşa)
- 0.70 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Gaziantep FK / Kasımpaşa)
- 1.28 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gaziantep FK goals. Columns: Kasımpaşa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gaziantep FK | 33% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Kasımpaşa | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gaziantep FK or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Kasımpaşa) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kasımpaşa win by 2+ | 29% | 3.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa recent form
Gaziantep FK
0W 1D 5L
Kasımpaşa
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gaziantep FK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kasımpaşa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gaziantep FK at home only, Kasımpaşa away only.
Injuries & availability
Gaziantep FK absences
-
A. Kizildag
inactive
-
F. Bavuk
hamstring injury
-
K. Tobiasz
inactive
-
N. Sangare
back injury
-
O. Ozcicek
inactive
-
S. Dursun
inactive
-
S. Hansen
inactive
-
U. Meleke
injury
Kasımpaşa absences
-
A. Karapo
injury
-
F. Diabate
inactive
-
G. Frimpong
injury
-
K. Corekci
achilles tendon injury
-
K. Mouanga
inactive
-
M. Ouanes
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Gaziantep FK lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 35 Ataberk Dadakdeniz
- 23 Kerim Çalhanoğlu
- 21 Abakar Sylla
- 14 Myenty Abena
- 2 Luis Pérez
- 7 Juninho Bacuna
- 10 Kacper Kozłowski
- 44 Alexandru Maxim
- 3 Drissa Camara
- 18 Deian Sorescu
- 9 Trivante Stewart
Bench: Arda Kızıldağ, Efe Sarıkaya, Ulrich Meleke, Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo, Karamba Gassama, Serdar Dursun, Halil Dervişoğlu, Ogün Özçiçek, Sabahattin Destici, Cemilhan Aslan
Kasımpaşa lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Andreas Gianniotis
- 45 Ayberk Karapo
- 27 Matei Ilie
- 4 Adem Arous
- 2 Cláudio Winck
- 26 Kerem Demirbay
- 51 Elson Mendes
- 7 Ali Yavuz Kol
- 10 Haris Hajradinović
- 17 Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
- 9 Adrian Benedyczak
Bench: Jakob Jessen, Atakan Mujde, Thiemoko Diarra, Ömer Bayram, Marcus Rafferty, Ali Emre Yanar, Ahmet Taha Dağbaşı, Mecit Deniz, Güven Yalçın, Emirhan Boz
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gaziantep FK 3 · draws 2 · Kasımpaşa 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Gaziantep FK | 2-1 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2025-08-30 | Kasımpaşa | 2-3 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 2025-05-24 | Gaziantep FK | 2-2 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2025-01-05 | Kasımpaşa | 2-2 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 2024-04-21 | Gaziantep FK | 2-0 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2023-12-03 | Kasımpaşa | 4-2 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 2023-08-02 | Kasımpaşa | 4-2 | Gaziantep FK | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-04-02 | Gaziantep FK | 0-3 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2022-10-01 | Kasımpaşa | 1-0 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 2022-04-03 | Kasımpaşa | 2-1 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor — match page 2026-11-07
- Samsunspor vs Konyaspor — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Galatasaray vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Göztepe vs Başakşehir 2026-11-07
- Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe 2026-11-08
- Alanyaspor v Trabzonspor — match page 2026-11-08
- Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği S.K. — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Gaziantep FK, previous: Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK: odds and pick
- Kasımpaşa, previous: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş prediction