Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş, the 1X2 probabilities show Beşiktaş at 48%, Kasımpaşa at 27%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline, according to our model, is 1-2, which occurs with an 8% probability.
Kasımpaşa's expected goals stand at 1.60, while Beşiktaş has 1.53. The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 64%. However, Kasımpaşa's recent form, with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, could influence the outcome differently than expected.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş: model vs market
| Source | Kasımpaşa | Draw | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Market | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Published | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Kasımpaşa / Beşiktaş)
- 1.07 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Kasımpaşa / Beşiktaş)
- 0.90 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kasımpaşa goals. Columns: Beşiktaş goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kasımpaşa | 27% | 3.75 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Beşiktaş | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kasımpaşa or draw) | 52% | 1.93 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Beşiktaş) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win by 2+ | 18% | 5.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş recent form
Kasımpaşa
3W 2D 1L
Beşiktaş
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kasımpaşa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beşiktaş away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kasımpaşa at home only, Beşiktaş away only.
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kasımpaşa 0 · draws 1 · Beşiktaş 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Beşiktaş | 2-1 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2025-10-26 | Kasımpaşa | 1-1 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-31
- Kocaelispor vs Rizespor 2026-10-31
- Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe 2026-10-31
- Amed vs Eyüpspor — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Başakşehir v Samsunspor — match page 2026-11-01
- Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Kasımpaşa, previous: Eyüpspor – Kasımpaşa, 2026-10-24
- Beşiktaş, previous: Beşiktaş v Başakşehir analysis
- Beşiktaş, next: Celtic vs Beşiktaş: odds and pick