Başakşehir vs Samsunspor preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Başakşehir and Samsunspor, the model gives Başakşehir a 66% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. Başakşehir shows strong expected goals at 2.40, compared to Samsunspor's 1.09, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
Samsunspor's recent form is concerning, with 6 consecutive losses, while Başakşehir has mixed results with 2 wins in their last 6 matches. This could impact the expected outcome, as a sudden improvement from Samsunspor might challenge the predicted scoreline. Additionally, the model suggests a 68% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score, which could also influence the match dynamics.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor: model vs market
| Source | Başakşehir | Draw | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 20% | 15% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Başakşehir below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Başakşehir and Samsunspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Başakşehir / Samsunspor)
- 1.10 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Başakşehir / Samsunspor)
- 1.02 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Başakşehir goals. Columns: Samsunspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Başakşehir | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Samsunspor | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Başakşehir or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Samsunspor) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Başakşehir win by 2+ | 44% | 2.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Başakşehir and Samsunspor recent form
Başakşehir
2W 2D 2L
Samsunspor
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Başakşehir at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Samsunspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Başakşehir at home only, Samsunspor away only.
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Başakşehir 2 · draws 0 · Samsunspor 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Başakşehir | 3-0 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-12-14 | Samsunspor | 0-2 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Konyaspor vs Galatasaray — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-31
- Kocaelispor vs Rizespor 2026-10-31
- Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe 2026-10-31
- Amed vs Eyüpspor — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Başakşehir, previous: Beşiktaş v Başakşehir analysis
- Samsunspor, previous: Samsunspor v Amed analysis