Kocaelispor vs Rizespor preview
Kocaelispor faces Rizespor with a 49% chance of winning according to our model, while Rizespor has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Kocaelispor's expected goals stand at 1.50, compared to Rizespor's 0.93, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, both teams to score has a 48% probability, suggesting that Rizespor could find the net. Kocaelispor's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Rizespor has only 2 wins in the same span. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor: model vs market
| Source | Kocaelispor | Draw | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 40% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kocaelispor below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kocaelispor, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | 2.56 | 2.56 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Rizespor | 2.60 | 2.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kocaelispor and Rizespor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.43
- Attack rating (Kocaelispor / Rizespor)
- 0.85 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Kocaelispor / Rizespor)
- 0.83 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kocaelispor goals. Columns: Rizespor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kocaelispor vs Rizespor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kocaelispor | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Rizespor | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kocaelispor or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Rizespor) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kocaelispor win by 2+ | 26% | 3.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kocaelispor and Rizespor recent form
Kocaelispor
3W 0D 3L
Rizespor
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kocaelispor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Rizespor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kocaelispor at home only, Rizespor away only.
Kocaelispor vs Rizespor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kocaelispor 0 · draws 1 · Rizespor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Rizespor | 2-0 | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-09-21 | Kocaelispor | 1-1 | Rizespor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Konyaspor vs Galatasaray — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-31
- Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe 2026-10-31
- Amed vs Eyüpspor — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Başakşehir v Samsunspor — match page 2026-11-01
- Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Kocaelispor, previous: Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor analysis
- Rizespor, previous: Rizespor vs Trabzonspor: odds and pick