Göztepe vs Başakşehir preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Göztepe and Başakşehir, the 1X2 probabilities show Göztepe at 55% and Başakşehir at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Göztepe's expected goals are 2.14, while Başakşehir's are 1.35.
Göztepe has shown strong recent form with three wins and two draws in their last six matches. In contrast, Başakşehir has two wins and four losses in their last six games. While the model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 66%, unexpected defensive performances could alter these outcomes.
Göztepe vs Başakşehir: model vs market
| Source | Göztepe | Draw | Başakşehir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Göztepe vs Başakşehir odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Göztepe, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Göztepe | 2.42 | 2.01 | -0.41 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.63 | -0.21 |
| Başakşehir | 2.67 | 3.32 | +0.65 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Göztepe and Başakşehir expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.76
- Attack rating (Göztepe / Başakşehir)
- 1.33 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Göztepe / Başakşehir)
- 1.03 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Göztepe vs Başakşehir score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Göztepe goals. Columns: Başakşehir goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Göztepe vs Başakşehir goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Göztepe vs Başakşehir
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Göztepe | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Başakşehir | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Göztepe or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Başakşehir) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Göztepe win by 2+ | 33% | 3.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Göztepe and Başakşehir recent form
Göztepe
4W 2D 0L
Başakşehir
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Göztepe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Başakşehir away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Göztepe at home only, Başakşehir away only.
Göztepe vs Başakşehir head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Göztepe 5 · draws 2 · Başakşehir 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Başakşehir | 2-1 | Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 2025-10-05 | Göztepe | 1-0 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 2025-04-28 | Göztepe | 4-1 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 2024-11-30 | Başakşehir | 4-1 | Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 2023-02-25 | Göztepe | 0-0 | Başakşehir | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-12-20 | Başakşehir | 3-1 | Göztepe | Türkiye Kupası |
| 2022-01-22 | Başakşehir | 1-2 | Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 2021-09-12 | Göztepe | 2-1 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 2021-02-14 | Göztepe | 2-1 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 2020-10-03 | Başakşehir | 0-0 | Göztepe | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Göztepe, previous: Fenerbahçe – Göztepe, 2026-10-31
- Başakşehir, previous: Başakşehir vs Samsunspor: odds and pick