Kolos Kovalivka II vs UCSA: model vs market
| Source | Kolos Kovalivka II | Draw | UCSA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kolos Kovalivka II and UCSA expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Kolos Kovalivka II / UCSA)
- 1.03 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Kolos Kovalivka II / UCSA)
- 1.31 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kolos Kovalivka II vs UCSA score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kolos Kovalivka II goals. Columns: UCSA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kolos Kovalivka II vs UCSA goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kolos Kovalivka II vs UCSA
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| UCSA | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kolos Kovalivka II or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or UCSA) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kolos Kovalivka II win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kolos Kovalivka II and UCSA recent form
Kolos Kovalivka II
3W 0D 3L
UCSA
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kolos Kovalivka II at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
UCSA away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kolos Kovalivka II at home only, UCSA away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Metal Kharkiv — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv 2026-10-17
- Yarud Mariupol' v Inhulets — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Kolos Kovalivka II, previous: Nyva Ternopil – Kolos Kovalivka II, 2026-10-11
- UCSA, previous: UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction