Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv preview
In the match between Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Chernihiv, the 1X2 probabilities show Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 53%, while Chernihiv sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring. Viktoriya Mykolaivka has a higher expected goals figure of 1.55 compared to Chernihiv's 0.85, indicating a potential advantage.
However, the recent form of both teams could affect the outcome. Viktoriya Mykolaivka has recorded D-W-D-L-L-D, while Chernihiv's form is L-L-L-W-L-D. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 46%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 43%. These factors suggest that while Viktoriya Mykolaivka is favored, Chernihiv's recent performance might challenge expectations.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv: model vs market
| Source | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | Draw | Chernihiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.85.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Chernihiv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Viktoriya Mykolaivka / Chernihiv)
- 0.95 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Viktoriya Mykolaivka / Chernihiv)
- 0.85 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Viktoriya Mykolaivka goals. Columns: Chernihiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Chernihiv | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Viktoriya Mykolaivka or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Chernihiv) | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka win by 2+ | 28% | 3.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Chernihiv recent form
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1W 3D 2L
Chernihiv
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Viktoriya Mykolaivka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chernihiv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Viktoriya Mykolaivka at home only, Chernihiv away only.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2 · draws 0 · Chernihiv 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 3-0 | Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| 2025-08-09 | Chernihiv | 1-2 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | Persha Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Metal Kharkiv — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Kolos Kovalivka II vs UCSA 2026-10-17
- Yarud Mariupol' v Inhulets — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Viktoriya Mykolaivka, previous: Metal Kharkiv vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka: odds and pick
- Chernihiv, previous: Chernihiv v Prykarpattia analysis