Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets: model vs market
| Source | Yarud Mariupol' | Draw | Inhulets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.75.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.14
- Attack rating (Yarud Mariupol' / Inhulets)
- 1.08 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Yarud Mariupol' / Inhulets)
- 0.74 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Yarud Mariupol' goals. Columns: Inhulets goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 51% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Inhulets | 19% | 5.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Yarud Mariupol' or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Inhulets) | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win by 2+ | 25% | 3.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets recent form
Yarud Mariupol'
3W 3D 0L
Inhulets
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Yarud Mariupol' at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inhulets away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Yarud Mariupol' at home only, Inhulets away only.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Yarud Mariupol' 0 · draws 1 · Inhulets 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Yarud Mariupol' | 1-1 | Inhulets | Persha Liga |
| 2025-10-03 | Inhulets | 2-0 | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Metal Kharkiv — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Chernihiv 2026-10-17
- Kolos Kovalivka II vs UCSA 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Yarud Mariupol', previous: UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction
- Inhulets, previous: Inhulets vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk prediction