Chernihiv vs Prykarpattia: model vs market
| Source | Chernihiv | Draw | Prykarpattia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 31% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 31% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chernihiv and Prykarpattia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Chernihiv / Prykarpattia)
- 0.93 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Chernihiv / Prykarpattia)
- 1.26 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chernihiv vs Prykarpattia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chernihiv goals. Columns: Prykarpattia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chernihiv vs Prykarpattia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chernihiv vs Prykarpattia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 26% | 3.81 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Prykarpattia | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chernihiv or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Prykarpattia) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Prykarpattia win by 2+ | 20% | 5.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chernihiv and Prykarpattia recent form
Chernihiv
1W 1D 4L
Prykarpattia
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chernihiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Prykarpattia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chernihiv at home only, Prykarpattia away only.
Chernihiv vs Prykarpattia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Chernihiv 2 · draws 0 · Prykarpattia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Chernihiv | 1-0 | Prykarpattia | Persha Liga |
| 2025-08-17 | Prykarpattia | 0-3 | Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Metal Kharkiv v Viktoriya Mykolaivka — match page 2026-10-09
- Inhulets v Ahrobiznes Volochysk — match page 2026-10-10
- Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava 2026-10-10
- UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv 2026-10-11
- Nyva Ternopil vs Kolos Kovalivka II — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Polissya II v Kulykiv — match page 2026-10-12