Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava preview
In the Persha Liga fixture between Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava, the model gives SK Poltava a strong 66% chance to win, while Probiy Horodenka has just a 13% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.90 for Probiy Horodenka and 2.20 for SK Poltava.
The market suggests a 60% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. Probiy Horodenka's recent form shows six games with only one win, while SK Poltava has had a mix of results, winning three of their last six. These factors could influence the outcome, but the model’s confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava: model vs market
| Source | Probiy Horodenka | Draw | SK Poltava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Probiy Horodenka / SK Poltava)
- 0.74 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Probiy Horodenka / SK Poltava)
- 1.78 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Probiy Horodenka goals. Columns: SK Poltava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Probiy Horodenka | 13% | 7.62 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.83 | |
| SK Poltava | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Probiy Horodenka or draw) | 34% | 2.96 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or SK Poltava) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | SK Poltava win by 2+ | 43% | 2.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava recent form
Probiy Horodenka
1W 0D 5L
SK Poltava
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Probiy Horodenka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
SK Poltava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Probiy Horodenka at home only, SK Poltava away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Metal Kharkiv v Viktoriya Mykolaivka — match page 2026-10-09
- Inhulets v Ahrobiznes Volochysk — match page 2026-10-10
- Chernihiv vs Prykarpattia 2026-10-11
- UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv 2026-10-11
- Nyva Ternopil vs Kolos Kovalivka II — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Polissya II v Kulykiv — match page 2026-10-12