Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv: model vs market
| Source | Oleksandria | Draw | Lokomotiv Kyiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.81.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Oleksandria and Lokomotiv Kyiv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Oleksandria / Lokomotiv Kyiv)
- 1.09 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Oleksandria / Lokomotiv Kyiv)
- 0.69 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oleksandria goals. Columns: Lokomotiv Kyiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.30 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oleksandria or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Lokomotiv Kyiv) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oleksandria win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Oleksandria and Lokomotiv Kyiv recent form
Oleksandria
3W 2D 1L
Lokomotiv Kyiv
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oleksandria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lokomotiv Kyiv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Oleksandria at home only, Lokomotiv Kyiv away only.
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- UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' — team news & stats 2026-10-11
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