Updated

Persha Liga · Matchday 16

Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria

· Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Ternopil

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Oleksandria to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Nyva TernopilDrawOleksandria

Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNyva TernopilDrawOleksandria
Model38%33%29%
Market26%29%45%
Published29%30%41%
Edge+3%+1%-4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Oleksandria, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-13.

Opened 2.20Now 2.00 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Nyva Ternopil2.913.42+0.51
Draw3.343.15-0.19
Oleksandria2.202.00-0.19

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nyva Ternopil and Oleksandria expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Nyva Ternopil
0.96Oleksandria
Total expected goals
2.07
Attack rating (Nyva Ternopil / Oleksandria)
1.31 / 0.97
Defence rating (Nyva Ternopil / Oleksandria)
0.91 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.0% 10.8% 5.8% 1.8% 0.5% 1 12.7% 14.8% 6.4% 2.0% 0.6% 2 7.8% 7.5% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 3 2.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Nyva Ternopil goals. Columns: Oleksandria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Nyva Ternopil29%3.42
Draw30%3.37
Oleksandria41%2.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.92
Under 2.566%1.52
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.34
No57%1.74
Double chance1X (Nyva Ternopil or draw)59%1.70
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Oleksandria)71%1.41
Handicap -1Oleksandria win by 2+11%8.95
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Nyva Ternopil and Oleksandria recent form

Nyva Ternopil 3W 3D 0L
Oleksandria 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Nyva Ternopil at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Oleksandria away

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-1
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
0.86
Clean sheets
4 of 7
  • They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Nyva Ternopil at home only, Oleksandria away only.

Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Nyva Ternopil 0 · draws 2 · Oleksandria 3.

Nyva TernopilDrawsOleksandria
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-24Oleksandria1-1Nyva TernopilPersha Liga
2015-04-14Nyva Ternopil0-1OleksandriaPersha Liga
2014-08-31Oleksandria3-0Nyva TernopilPersha Liga
2014-05-18Nyva Ternopil2-4OleksandriaPersha Liga
2013-10-04Oleksandria1-1Nyva TernopilPersha Liga

Other Matchday 16 fixtures

Before and after this match