Updated

Persha Liga · Matchday 16

SK Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

· Lokomotyv Stadium, Poltava

Full time1 – 4

Alin prediction was SK Poltava to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SK PoltavaDrawAhrobiznes Volochysk

SK Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSK PoltavaDrawAhrobiznes Volochysk
Model43%28%30%
Market43%29%28%
Published43%29%29%
Edge0%0%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SK Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SK Poltava, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-12.

Opened 2.30Now 2.10 -0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SK Poltava2.302.10-0.20
Draw3.203.14-0.06
Ahrobiznes Volochysk2.803.20+0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SK Poltava and Ahrobiznes Volochysk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52SK Poltava
1.24Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Total expected goals
2.77
Attack rating (SK Poltava / Ahrobiznes Volochysk)
1.28 / 1.22
Defence rating (SK Poltava / Ahrobiznes Volochysk)
0.95 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SK Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 6.6% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% 1 8.4% 13.1% 7.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2 7.3% 9.1% 5.6% 2.3% 1.0% 3 3.7% 4.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: SK Poltava goals. Columns: Ahrobiznes Volochysk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SK Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SK Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SK Poltava43%2.35
Draw29%3.50
Ahrobiznes Volochysk29%3.48
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (SK Poltava or draw)71%1.40
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Ahrobiznes Volochysk)57%1.74
Handicap -1SK Poltava win by 2+22%4.61
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SK Poltava and Ahrobiznes Volochysk recent form

SK Poltava 3W 0D 3L
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SK Poltava at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.83
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
4 of 6
  • They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-3
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: SK Poltava at home only, Ahrobiznes Volochysk away only.

SK Poltava vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: SK Poltava 4 · draws 0 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.

SK PoltavaDrawsAhrobiznes Volochysk
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-25Ahrobiznes Volochysk0-3SK PoltavaPersha Liga
2025-05-04SK Poltava2-0Ahrobiznes VolochyskPersha Liga
2025-04-05Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-2SK PoltavaPersha Liga
2024-05-18Ahrobiznes Volochysk3-1SK PoltavaPersha Liga
2024-04-12SK Poltava2-1Ahrobiznes VolochyskPersha Liga

Other Matchday 16 fixtures

Before and after this match