Charleston Battery vs Louisville City preview
In the fixture between Charleston Battery and Louisville City, the 1X2 probabilities show Charleston Battery at 41%, Louisville City at 32%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Charleston Battery has an expected goals figure of 1.47, while Louisville City sits at 1.31.
Charleston Battery's recent form includes two draws followed by two wins and then a loss, while Louisville City has won its last six matches. The model predicts a 53% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected outcomes could arise given the teams' recent performances and head-to-head history, where Louisville City has 5 wins in the last 10 encounters.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City: model vs market
| Source | Charleston Battery | Draw | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Charleston Battery, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 2.15 | 2.20 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.30 | -0.15 |
| Louisville City | 2.92 | 2.90 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Charleston Battery and Louisville City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Charleston Battery / Louisville City)
- 1.21 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Charleston Battery / Louisville City)
- 0.88 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charleston Battery goals. Columns: Louisville City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charleston Battery vs Louisville City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleston Battery | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Louisville City | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charleston Battery or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Louisville City) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleston Battery win by 2+ | 20% | 5.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Charleston Battery and Louisville City recent form
Charleston Battery
2W 3D 1L
Louisville City
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charleston Battery at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-4-2
- Win rate
- 65%
- Goals for / match
- 2.41
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 15 of 16 penalties (94%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Charleston Battery at home only, Louisville City away only.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Charleston Battery 3 · draws 2 · Louisville City 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Charleston Battery | 0-2 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2026-04-04 | Louisville City | 0-2 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-10 | Louisville City | 4-1 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-09 | Charleston Battery | 1-2 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-18 | Louisville City | 3-1 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-09 | Charleston Battery | 3-2 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2023-11-04 | Charleston Battery | 2-1 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2023-08-10 | Louisville City | 1-1 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2023-04-22 | Charleston Battery | 0-0 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2022-08-07 | Louisville City | 4-1 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
- Charleston Battery, previous: Charleston Battery vs Hartford Athletic prediction
- Louisville City, previous: Louisville City vs Miami FC: odds and pick