Charleston Battery vs Hartford Athletic: model vs market
| Source | Charleston Battery | Draw | Hartford Athletic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Charleston Battery vs Hartford Athletic odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Charleston Battery, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston Battery | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.74 | -0.09 |
| Hartford Athletic | 4.12 | 4.20 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Charleston Battery and Hartford Athletic expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Charleston Battery / Hartford Athletic)
- 1.10 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Charleston Battery / Hartford Athletic)
- 0.75 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charleston Battery vs Hartford Athletic score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charleston Battery goals. Columns: Hartford Athletic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charleston Battery vs Hartford Athletic goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charleston Battery vs Hartford Athletic
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleston Battery | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Hartford Athletic | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charleston Battery or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Hartford Athletic) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleston Battery win by 2+ | 27% | 3.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Charleston Battery and Hartford Athletic recent form
Charleston Battery
3W 2D 1L
Hartford Athletic
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charleston Battery at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 2.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hartford Athletic away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Charleston Battery at home only, Hartford Athletic away only.
Charleston Battery vs Hartford Athletic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Charleston Battery 6 · draws 2 · Hartford Athletic 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Hartford Athletic | 1-1 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2026-09-02 | Charleston Battery | 1-2 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-14 | Hartford Athletic | 1-2 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2025-05-03 | Charleston Battery | 4-2 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 2024-07-12 | Hartford Athletic | 2-2 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2024-05-04 | Charleston Battery | 1-0 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 2023-06-17 | Hartford Athletic | 3-4 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2023-04-08 | Charleston Battery | 3-2 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 2022-10-01 | Hartford Athletic | 6-3 | Charleston Battery | USL Championship |
| 2022-07-17 | Charleston Battery | 3-1 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
- Louisville City v Miami FC — match page 2026-11-08
- New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs 2026-11-08
- Sacramento Republic v El Paso Locomotive — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Charleston Battery, previous: Charleston Battery – Rhode Island, 2026-10-30
- Hartford Athletic, previous: Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic: odds and pick