Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive: model vs market
| Source | Sacramento Republic | Draw | El Paso Locomotive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 31% | 26% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sacramento Republic, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 1.56 | 1.62 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.62 | -0.10 |
| El Paso Locomotive | 5.05 | 4.80 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sacramento Republic and El Paso Locomotive expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Sacramento Republic / El Paso Locomotive)
- 1.05 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Sacramento Republic / El Paso Locomotive)
- 0.75 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sacramento Republic goals. Columns: El Paso Locomotive goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| El Paso Locomotive | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sacramento Republic or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or El Paso Locomotive) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win by 2+ | 21% | 4.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sacramento Republic and El Paso Locomotive recent form
Sacramento Republic
4W 2D 0L
El Paso Locomotive
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sacramento Republic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
El Paso Locomotive away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-5
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sacramento Republic at home only, El Paso Locomotive away only.
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sacramento Republic 6 · draws 0 · El Paso Locomotive 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | El Paso Locomotive | 0-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2026-03-29 | Sacramento Republic | 1-2 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-24 | El Paso Locomotive | 1-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-13 | Sacramento Republic | 3-0 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2024-10-20 | El Paso Locomotive | 2-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-15 | Sacramento Republic | 2-0 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2023-09-17 | Sacramento Republic | 1-0 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| 2023-03-12 | El Paso Locomotive | 0-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2022-05-19 | El Paso Locomotive | 1-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2022-03-13 | Sacramento Republic | 3-1 | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
- Sacramento Republic, previous: Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa: odds and pick
- El Paso Locomotive, previous: El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio prediction