Updated

USL Championship · Quarter-finals

New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs

· Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park, Albuquerque

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was New Mexico United to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
New Mexico UnitedDrawColorado Springs

New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNew Mexico UnitedDrawColorado Springs
Model41%33%26%
Market34%28%38%
Published36%29%35%
Edge+2%+1%-3%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs odds movement

Median bookmaker price on New Mexico United, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-04.

Opened 2.62Now 2.65 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
New Mexico United2.622.65+0.03
Draw3.353.25-0.10
Colorado Springs2.332.38+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

New Mexico United and Colorado Springs expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14New Mexico United
0.86Colorado Springs
Total expected goals
2.01
Attack rating (New Mexico United / Colorado Springs)
1.08 / 0.88
Defence rating (New Mexico United / Colorado Springs)
0.82 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.7% 10.3% 5.0% 1.4% 0.4% 1 14.0% 14.6% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 2 8.8% 7.6% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 3 3.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: New Mexico United goals. Columns: Colorado Springs goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2New Mexico United36%2.79
Draw29%3.43
Colorado Springs35%2.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.06
Under 2.567%1.48
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.45
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (New Mexico United or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Colorado Springs)64%1.56
Handicap -1New Mexico United win by 2+18%5.61
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

New Mexico United and Colorado Springs recent form

New Mexico United 4W 0D 2L
Colorado Springs 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

New Mexico United at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-3-3
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.12
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Colorado Springs away

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-6
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 13 of 14 penalties (93%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: New Mexico United at home only, Colorado Springs away only.

Expected lineups

New Mexico United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Kristopher Shakes
  2. 3 C. Gloster
  3. 2 N. Hämäläinen
  4. 24 T. Blackett
  5. 17 J. LaCava
  6. 19 Z. Bailey
  7. 15 O. Jabang
  8. 31 J. Quiah
  9. 21 V. Noël
  10. 14 C. Dennis
  11. 10 G. Hurst

Bench: D. Harris, G. Zelalem, N. Reid-Stephen, J. Rennicks, Maliek Howell, Cullen Wilkerson, A. Pannenberg

Colorado Springs lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 1 C. Herrera
  2. 12 I. Foster
  3. 24 T. Maples
  4. 5 M. Mahoney
  5. 6 Samuel Williams
  6. 97 P. Burner
  7. 37 B. Creek
  8. 8 F. Daroma
  9. 11 B. Jamison
  10. 90 K. Bennett
  11. 10 A. Perez

Bench: S. Echevarria, D. Lacroix, Sadam Masereka, A. Rocha, E. Amoh, J. Tejada, S. Jones, D. Valenti

New Mexico United vs Colorado Springs head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: New Mexico United 4 · draws 5 · Colorado Springs 1.

New Mexico UnitedDrawsColorado Springs
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-20Colorado Springs0-0New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship
2026-08-02New Mexico United1-0Colorado SpringsUSL Championship
2026-05-17Colorado Springs4-0New Mexico UnitedUSL League One Cup
2026-03-28New Mexico United3-2Colorado SpringsUSL Championship
2025-09-25Colorado Springs1-2New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship
2025-06-29New Mexico United2-2Colorado SpringsUSL League One Cup
2025-06-08New Mexico United1-1Colorado SpringsUSL Championship
2025-02-08Colorado Springs2-2New Mexico UnitedFriendlies Clubs
2025-02-07Colorado Springs2-2New Mexico UnitedFriendlies Clubs
2024-08-25Colorado Springs0-1New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship

Other Quarter-finals fixtures

Before and after this match