New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising preview
In the fixture between New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising, the 1X2 probabilities show New Mexico United at 52% to win, while Phoenix Rising sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.06 for New Mexico United and 1.40 for Phoenix Rising.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both projected at 67%. However, New Mexico United's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins in their last six matches. If they fail to capitalize on their home advantage, it could impact the expected outcome. Phoenix Rising's recent draw and mixed results could also affect their performance.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising: model vs market
| Source | New Mexico United | Draw | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (New Mexico United / Phoenix Rising)
- 1.10 / 1.28
- Defence rating (New Mexico United / Phoenix Rising)
- 0.92 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New Mexico United goals. Columns: Phoenix Rising goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Phoenix Rising | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New Mexico United or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Phoenix Rising) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win by 2+ | 31% | 3.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising recent form
New Mexico United
3W 0D 3L
Phoenix Rising
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New Mexico United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-3
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Phoenix Rising away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-7
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New Mexico United at home only, Phoenix Rising away only.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: New Mexico United 6 · draws 1 · Phoenix Rising 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | New Mexico United | 2-1 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2026-06-07 | New Mexico United | 4-0 | Phoenix Rising | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-04-12 | Phoenix Rising | 3-0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-05 | Phoenix Rising | 0-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-01 | Phoenix Rising | 3-3 | New Mexico United | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-05-11 | New Mexico United | 1-2 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2024-11-04 | New Mexico United | 2-1 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2024-10-10 | New Mexico United | 1-2 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2024-03-31 | Phoenix Rising | 0-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2023-10-08 | Phoenix Rising | 1-2 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Charleston Battery vs Rhode Island 2026-10-30
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Miami FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio 2026-10-31
- Lexington v Colorado Springs — match page 2026-11-01
- Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- New Mexico United, previous: El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United: odds and pick
- Phoenix Rising, previous: Phoenix Rising – Lexington, 2026-10-25