Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic preview
In the fixture between Detroit City and Hartford Athletic, the 1X2 probabilities show Detroit City at 41%, a draw at 37%, and Hartford Athletic at 22%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, which occurs 18% of the time.
Detroit City has a recent form of D-L-W-W-W-D, while Hartford Athletic's form is W-L-D-L-D-D. The expected goals for Detroit City are 0.99, and for Hartford Athletic, they are 0.65. With only 23% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, a low-scoring match seems probable, but unexpected events could alter this outcome.
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic: model vs market
| Source | Detroit City | Draw | Hartford Athletic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Detroit City and Hartford Athletic expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.64
- Attack rating (Detroit City / Hartford Athletic)
- 0.65 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Detroit City / Hartford Athletic)
- 0.48 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Detroit City goals. Columns: Hartford Athletic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Detroit City | 41% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Hartford Athletic | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.19 |
| No | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Detroit City or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| X2 (draw or Hartford Athletic) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Detroit City win by 2+ | 16% | 6.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Detroit City and Hartford Athletic recent form
Detroit City
3W 2D 1L
Hartford Athletic
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Detroit City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Hartford Athletic away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-5
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Detroit City at home only, Hartford Athletic away only.
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Detroit City 2 · draws 5 · Hartford Athletic 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Detroit City | 1-1 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 2026-05-09 | Hartford Athletic | 2-1 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-12 | Detroit City | 1-2 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-28 | Hartford Athletic | 2-2 | Detroit City | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-05-10 | Hartford Athletic | 0-0 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-31 | Detroit City | 1-1 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 2024-07-31 | Hartford Athletic | 1-0 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2023-09-23 | Detroit City | 3-0 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 2023-06-14 | Hartford Athletic | 1-3 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2022-07-06 | Detroit City | 1-1 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
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- Charleston Battery vs Rhode Island 2026-10-30
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Miami FC — match page 2026-10-30
- El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio 2026-10-31
- Lexington v Colorado Springs — match page 2026-11-01
- New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Detroit City, previous: Louisville City vs Detroit City: odds and pick
- Hartford Athletic, previous: Hartford Athletic v Rhode Island analysis