Lexington vs Colorado Springs preview
Lexington faces Colorado Springs with a 50% probability of winning and a predicted scoreline of 2-1, which is the most likely outcome at 10%. Lexington's expected goals stand at 1.76, while Colorado Springs has a lower figure of 1.16. The model also suggests a 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% likelihood for both teams to score.
However, recent form shows Lexington with three wins in their last six matches, while Colorado Springs has only one win in their last six. The head-to-head record favors Colorado Springs slightly, with 2 wins compared to Lexington's 1 in their last 4 encounters. This could impact the match outcome, making it less predictable despite Lexington's stronger probabilities.
Lexington vs Colorado Springs: model vs market
| Source | Lexington | Draw | Colorado Springs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lexington and Colorado Springs expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Lexington / Colorado Springs)
- 1.69 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Lexington / Colorado Springs)
- 1.08 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lexington vs Colorado Springs score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lexington goals. Columns: Colorado Springs goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lexington vs Colorado Springs goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lexington vs Colorado Springs
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Colorado Springs | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lexington or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Colorado Springs) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lexington and Colorado Springs recent form
Lexington
4W 2D 0L
Colorado Springs
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lexington at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-4
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colorado Springs away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lexington at home only, Colorado Springs away only.
Lexington vs Colorado Springs head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lexington 1 · draws 1 · Colorado Springs 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Lexington | 0-1 | Colorado Springs | USL Championship |
| 2026-04-04 | Colorado Springs | 1-1 | Lexington | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-02 | Colorado Springs | 3-1 | Lexington | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-20 | Lexington | 2-1 | Colorado Springs | USL Championship |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Charleston Battery vs Rhode Island 2026-10-30
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Miami FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio 2026-10-31
- New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Lexington, previous: Phoenix Rising – Lexington, 2026-10-25
- Colorado Springs, previous: Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa analysis