Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds preview
In the fixture between Louisville City and Pittsburgh Riverhounds, the 1X2 probabilities show Louisville City at 47%, while Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Louisville City has an expected goals figure of 1.32 compared to Pittsburgh's 0.84, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the recent form of both teams could impact the outcome. Louisville City has a mixed record with D-W-W-W-D-W, while Pittsburgh Riverhounds has shown some resilience with W-D-W-L-L-W. Additionally, both teams to score has a 43% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 37%, suggesting that while a low-scoring match is likely, surprises can happen.
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds: model vs market
| Source | Louisville City | Draw | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Louisville City and Pittsburgh Riverhounds expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Louisville City / Pittsburgh Riverhounds)
- 1.21 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Louisville City / Pittsburgh Riverhounds)
- 0.84 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Louisville City goals. Columns: Pittsburgh Riverhounds goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Louisville City or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Louisville City and Pittsburgh Riverhounds recent form
Louisville City
4W 2D 0L
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Louisville City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-4
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Pittsburgh Riverhounds away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-7
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Louisville City at home only, Pittsburgh Riverhounds away only.
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Louisville City 1 · draws 1 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 3-1 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2026-05-09 | Louisville City | 0-2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-13 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0-2 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2025-05-10 | Louisville City | 0-0 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
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Before and after this match
- Louisville City, previous: Louisville City vs Detroit City: odds and pick
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds, previous: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion prediction