Louisville City vs Miami FC: model vs market
| Source | Louisville City | Draw | Miami FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Published | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Louisville City vs Miami FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Louisville City, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | 1.42 | 1.45 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.45 | -0.15 |
| Miami FC | 5.47 | 5.60 | +0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Louisville City and Miami FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Louisville City / Miami FC)
- 1.17 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Louisville City / Miami FC)
- 0.74 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Louisville City vs Miami FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Louisville City goals. Columns: Miami FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Louisville City vs Miami FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Louisville City vs Miami FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 63% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Miami FC | 16% | 6.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Louisville City or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Miami FC) | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win by 2+ | 38% | 2.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Louisville City and Miami FC recent form
Louisville City
4W 2D 0L
Miami FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Louisville City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Miami FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Louisville City at home only, Miami FC away only.
Louisville City vs Miami FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Louisville City 7 · draws 0 · Miami FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Miami FC | 4-3 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2026-03-14 | Louisville City | 4-1 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-11 | Louisville City | 1-0 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-16 | Miami FC | 2-4 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2024-10-02 | Louisville City | 3-0 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2024-06-01 | Miami FC | 1-2 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2023-09-20 | Miami FC | 4-3 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2023-05-13 | Louisville City | 3-1 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2022-08-27 | Miami FC | 1-0 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2022-03-19 | Louisville City | 2-0 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
- Louisville City, previous: Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds prediction
- Miami FC, previous: Tampa Bay Rowdies v Miami FC analysis