Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC preview
In the matchup between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong likelihood for Tampa Bay Rowdies at 65%, compared to Miami FC's 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance. The expected goals indicate Tampa Bay Rowdies at 2.11 and Miami FC at 0.86, suggesting a clear advantage for the home side.
However, Miami FC has shown resilience recently, winning 5 of their last 6 matches. This could challenge the forecasted outcome, especially considering both teams to score sits at 52%. While Tampa Bay Rowdies have dominated their recent head-to-head encounters with 8 wins in the last 10 matches, the confidence grade of C reflects some uncertainty in this prediction.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC: model vs market
| Source | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | Miami FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.86.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Tampa Bay Rowdies / Miami FC)
- 1.23 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Tampa Bay Rowdies / Miami FC)
- 0.68 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tampa Bay Rowdies goals. Columns: Miami FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Miami FC | 13% | 7.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Miami FC) | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win by 2+ | 42% | 2.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC recent form
Tampa Bay Rowdies
4W 1D 1L
Miami FC
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tampa Bay Rowdies at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-3
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Miami FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tampa Bay Rowdies at home only, Miami FC away only.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Tampa Bay Rowdies 8 · draws 1 · Miami FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1-2 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2026-07-25 | Miami FC | 2-3 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2026-05-16 | Miami FC | 1-4 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-06-14 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-1 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2025-04-26 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-3 | Miami FC | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-03-22 | Miami FC | 1-2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-24 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-0 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-11 | Miami FC | 2-5 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2023-08-26 | Miami FC | 0-2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2023-04-08 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-0 | Miami FC | USL Championship |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Charleston Battery vs Rhode Island 2026-10-30
- Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio 2026-10-31
- Lexington v Colorado Springs — match page 2026-11-01
- New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Tampa Bay Rowdies, previous: Tampa Bay Rowdies – Sporting JAX, 2026-10-24
- Miami FC, previous: Miami FC v Charleston Battery analysis