Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa preview
In the match between Sacramento Republic and FC Tulsa, the 1X2 probabilities show Sacramento Republic at 56%, while FC Tulsa is at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model. Sacramento Republic's expected goals stand at 1.61 compared to FC Tulsa's 0.77, indicating a stronger offensive performance.
However, Sacramento Republic's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 draws, while FC Tulsa has 1 win and 4 draws in their last 6 matches. This could affect the outcome, as FC Tulsa has managed to secure results against Sacramento Republic in their past meetings, with 3 wins out of the last 10 encounters. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals is 43%, and both teams to score is at 44%, suggesting a potential for a low-scoring match.
Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa: model vs market
| Source | Sacramento Republic | Draw | FC Tulsa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sacramento Republic and FC Tulsa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.38
- Attack rating (Sacramento Republic / FC Tulsa)
- 1.14 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Sacramento Republic / FC Tulsa)
- 0.80 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sacramento Republic goals. Columns: FC Tulsa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 56% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| FC Tulsa | 17% | 6.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sacramento Republic or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Tulsa) | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win by 2+ | 31% | 3.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sacramento Republic and FC Tulsa recent form
Sacramento Republic
4W 2D 0L
FC Tulsa
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sacramento Republic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
FC Tulsa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-5
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sacramento Republic at home only, FC Tulsa away only.
Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sacramento Republic 2 · draws 5 · FC Tulsa 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | FC Tulsa | 1-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2026-08-06 | FC Tulsa | 1-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2026-03-08 | Sacramento Republic | 2-0 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-08 | Sacramento Republic | 0-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-29 | FC Tulsa | 1-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-06-23 | FC Tulsa | 0-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-14 | Sacramento Republic | 1-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2023-04-29 | FC Tulsa | 1-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2022-03-27 | Sacramento Republic | 2-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
| 2020-03-08 | Sacramento Republic | 1-1 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Charleston Battery vs Rhode Island 2026-10-30
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Miami FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio 2026-10-31
- Lexington v Colorado Springs — match page 2026-11-01
- New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Sacramento Republic, previous: Sacramento Republic v Oakland Roots analysis
- FC Tulsa, previous: Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa analysis