New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic preview
In the USL Championship match between New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic, the 1X2 probabilities show New Mexico United at 45%, while Sacramento Republic sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, which has an 11% chance of occurring.
New Mexico United has a higher expected goals figure at 1.42 compared to Sacramento Republic's 1.01. However, Sacramento Republic is in strong recent form, with 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches. This could challenge New Mexico United's chances, especially given their mixed results, with 4 wins and 2 losses in the same period. The model indicates a 44% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic: model vs market
| Source | New Mexico United | Draw | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 29% | 25% |
| Market | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Published | 36% | 30% | 35% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices New Mexico United below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.01, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic odds movement
Median bookmaker price on New Mexico United, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 2.80 | 2.82 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 2.89 | 3.05 | +0.16 |
| Sacramento Republic | 2.41 | 2.40 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.43
- Attack rating (New Mexico United / Sacramento Republic)
- 1.26 / 1.11
- Defence rating (New Mexico United / Sacramento Republic)
- 0.77 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New Mexico United goals. Columns: Sacramento Republic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 36% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Sacramento Republic | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.02 |
| No | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New Mexico United or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Sacramento Republic) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win by 2+ | 23% | 4.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic recent form
New Mexico United
5W 0D 1L
Sacramento Republic
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New Mexico United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-3
- Win rate
- 65%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sacramento Republic away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-3
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: New Mexico United at home only, Sacramento Republic away only.
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: New Mexico United 3 · draws 1 · Sacramento Republic 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | New Mexico United | 2-3 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2026-06-21 | Sacramento Republic | 0-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-31 | New Mexico United | 0-2 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-09 | Sacramento Republic | 2-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2024-09-30 | Sacramento Republic | 4-0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2024-09-19 | New Mexico United | 3-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2023-10-22 | Sacramento Republic | 1-0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2023-09-21 | Sacramento Republic | 0-0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2023-07-23 | New Mexico United | 3-0 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2022-10-23 | Sacramento Republic | 2-0 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
Other Semi-finals fixtures
- Charleston Battery vs Louisville City 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- New Mexico United, previous: New Mexico United – Colorado Springs, 2026-11-08
- Sacramento Republic, previous: Sacramento Republic v El Paso Locomotive analysis