Carabobo FC vs Deportivo La Guaira preview
In the fixture between Carabobo FC and Deportivo La Guaira, the 1X2 probabilities show Carabobo FC at 58%, while Deportivo La Guaira sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance according to our model. Carabobo FC has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.76 compared to Deportivo La Guaira's 0.86, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the recent form could influence the outcome. Carabobo FC has recorded three wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Deportivo La Guaira has only one win in their last six. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 49%, suggesting a close match could occur if Deportivo La Guaira improves their performance.
Carabobo FC vs Deportivo La Guaira: model vs market
| Source | Carabobo FC | Draw | Deportivo La Guaira |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Carabobo FC and Deportivo La Guaira expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Carabobo FC / Deportivo La Guaira)
- 1.09 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Carabobo FC / Deportivo La Guaira)
- 0.74 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Carabobo FC vs Deportivo La Guaira score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Carabobo FC goals. Columns: Deportivo La Guaira goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Carabobo FC vs Deportivo La Guaira goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Carabobo FC vs Deportivo La Guaira
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carabobo FC | 58% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 17% | 5.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Carabobo FC or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo La Guaira) | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Carabobo FC win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Carabobo FC and Deportivo La Guaira recent form
Carabobo FC
4W 2D 0L
Deportivo La Guaira
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Carabobo FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-7-0
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.65
- Goals against / match
- 0.59
- Clean sheets
- 11 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
Deportivo La Guaira away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-7-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Carabobo FC at home only, Deportivo La Guaira away only.
Carabobo FC vs Deportivo La Guaira head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Carabobo FC 3 · draws 6 · Deportivo La Guaira 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Carabobo FC | 1-0 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-04-02 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-1 | Carabobo FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-09-28 | Carabobo FC | 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-04-17 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 | Carabobo FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2024-11-10 | Carabobo FC | 1-1 | Deportivo La Guaira | Primera División |
| 2024-11-03 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-1 | Carabobo FC | Primera División |
| 2024-09-15 | Carabobo FC | 3-1 | Deportivo La Guaira | Primera División |
| 2024-03-19 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 | Carabobo FC | Primera División |
| 2024-01-27 | Deportivo La Guaira | 4-1 | Carabobo FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-07-15 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-1 | Carabobo FC | Primera División |
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Carabobo FC, previous: Portuguesa FC – Carabobo FC, 2026-10-25
- Deportivo La Guaira, previous: Deportivo La Guaira v Metropolitanos FC analysis