Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC preview
In the fixture between Portuguesa FC and Carabobo FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Carabobo FC at 42%, while Portuguesa FC stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance according to our model. Carabobo FC has shown strong recent form, with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Portuguesa FC has 2 wins in the same period.
However, the expected goals are close, with Portuguesa FC at 0.93 and Carabobo FC at 0.95. This tight margin could lead to a different outcome than predicted. Additionally, both teams to score has a 38% chance, suggesting that while Carabobo FC may be favored, the match could still be competitive.
Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC: model vs market
| Source | Portuguesa FC | Draw | Carabobo FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 35% | 33% |
| Market | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Published | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Carabobo FC, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portuguesa FC | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Carabobo FC | 2.00 | 2.02 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Portuguesa FC and Carabobo FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.88
- Attack rating (Portuguesa FC / Carabobo FC)
- 0.90 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Portuguesa FC / Carabobo FC)
- 0.79 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portuguesa FC goals. Columns: Carabobo FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portuguesa FC | 28% | 3.56 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Carabobo FC | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.60 |
| No | 62% | 1.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portuguesa FC or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Carabobo FC) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Carabobo FC win by 2+ | 13% | 7.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Portuguesa FC and Carabobo FC recent form
Portuguesa FC
2W 3D 1L
Carabobo FC
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portuguesa FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-6-2
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.41
- Goals against / match
- 0.76
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Carabobo FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Portuguesa FC at home only, Carabobo FC away only.
Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Portuguesa FC 1 · draws 3 · Carabobo FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Portuguesa FC | 1-0 | Carabobo FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-01-31 | Carabobo FC | 0-0 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-07-11 | Portuguesa FC | 0-0 | Carabobo FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-02-02 | Carabobo FC | 0-0 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Portuguesa FC, previous: UCV – Portuguesa FC, 2026-10-18
- Portuguesa FC, next: Metropolitanos FC v Portuguesa FC analysis
- Carabobo FC, previous: Carabobo FC – Deportivo Tachira FC, 2026-10-17
- Carabobo FC, next: Carabobo FC – Deportivo La Guaira, 2026-10-28