UCV vs Portuguesa FC preview
In the fixture between UCV and Portuguesa FC, the 1X2 probabilities show UCV at 43% and Portuguesa FC at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of UCV, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams to score has a 51% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 44%.
Recent form indicates UCV with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches, while Portuguesa FC has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the same span. The expected goals are close, with UCV at 1.19 and Portuguesa FC at 1.24. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
UCV vs Portuguesa FC: model vs market
| Source | UCV | Draw | Portuguesa FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | -11% | +1% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
UCV vs Portuguesa FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on UCV, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCV | 1.93 | 2.03 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.12 | -0.17 |
| Portuguesa FC | 3.42 | 3.42 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
UCV and Portuguesa FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (UCV / Portuguesa FC)
- 0.96 / 0.98
- Defence rating (UCV / Portuguesa FC)
- 1.17 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UCV vs Portuguesa FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UCV goals. Columns: Portuguesa FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UCV vs Portuguesa FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UCV vs Portuguesa FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCV | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Portuguesa FC | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UCV or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Portuguesa FC) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | UCV win by 2+ | 15% | 6.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
UCV and Portuguesa FC recent form
UCV
2W 3D 1L
Portuguesa FC
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UCV at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portuguesa FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-5
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: UCV at home only, Portuguesa FC away only.
UCV vs Portuguesa FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: UCV 4 · draws 3 · Portuguesa FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | UCV | 2-3 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-05-02 | Portuguesa FC | 1-1 | UCV | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-04-25 | Portuguesa FC | 3-0 | UCV | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-08-03 | UCV | 2-0 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-05-31 | Portuguesa FC | 1-3 | UCV | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-05-11 | UCV | 2-2 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-02-23 | Portuguesa FC | 0-1 | UCV | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2024-09-22 | Portuguesa FC | 1-1 | UCV | Primera División |
| 2024-03-22 | UCV | 1-0 | Portuguesa FC | Primera División |
| 2023-07-28 | UCV | 0-1 | Portuguesa FC | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Zamora FC vs Anzoátegui FC 2026-10-17
- Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Carabobo FC v Deportivo Tachira FC — match page 2026-10-17
- Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC 2026-10-18
- Puerto Cabello v Monagas SC — match page 2026-10-18
- Rayo Zuliano vs Caracas FC 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- UCV, previous: Deportivo Tachira FC – UCV, 2026-10-10
- Portuguesa FC, previous: Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira prediction