Updated

Venezuela Primera División · Clausura - 13

Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC

· Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, Caracas

Alin prediction Deportivo La Guaira to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportivo La GuairaDrawTrujillanos FC
Best market odds
Deportivo La Guaira1.57 Draw4.00 Trujillanos FC5.79

Price as of

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC preview

In the fixture between Deportivo La Guaira and Trujillanos FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo La Guaira at 61% to win, while Trujillanos FC sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which has a 10% chance of occurring. Deportivo La Guaira has an expected goals figure of 2.25, compared to Trujillanos FC's 1.15.

Both teams to score has a probability of 62%, and there is a 66% chance of Over 2.5 goals. However, recent form indicates that Deportivo La Guaira has drawn or lost in 4 of their last 6 matches, while Trujillanos FC has also struggled, with 4 losses in their last 6. This could impact the match outcome and the predicted scoring trends.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportivo La GuairaDrawTrujillanos FC
Model61%22%17%
Market59%24%16%
Published60%24%16%
Edge+2%-2%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.07.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportivo La Guaira, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.39Now 1.53 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Deportivo La Guaira1.391.53+0.15
Draw4.053.73-0.32
Trujillanos FC6.755.58-1.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Deportivo La Guaira and Trujillanos FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.14Deportivo La Guaira
1.07Trujillanos FC
Total expected goals
3.20
Attack rating (Deportivo La Guaira / Trujillanos FC)
1.11 / 0.89
Defence rating (Deportivo La Guaira / Trujillanos FC)
1.10 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 3.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1 7.8% 10.2% 4.9% 1.8% 0.6% 2 9.3% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 3 6.6% 7.0% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 4+ 5.8% 6.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%

Rows: Deportivo La Guaira goals. Columns: Trujillanos FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportivo La Guaira60%1.67
Draw24%4.21
Trujillanos FC16%6.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.61
Under 2.538%2.64
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.42
Double chance1X (Deportivo La Guaira or draw)84%1.20
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Trujillanos FC)40%2.48
Handicap -1Deportivo La Guaira win by 2+39%2.59
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Deportivo La Guaira and Trujillanos FC recent form

Deportivo La Guaira 1W 2D 3L
Trujillanos FC 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo La Guaira at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.27
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Trujillanos FC away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-8
Win rate
8%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
2 of 12
  • They have won 3 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 25 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo La Guaira at home only, Trujillanos FC away only.

Expected lineups

Deportivo La Guaira lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 C. Varela
  2. 39 M. Orihuela
  3. 24 G. Ortiz
  4. 16 L. Martinez
  5. 15 M. González
  6. 27 J. Correa
  7. 10 J. Castellanos
  8. 22 M. Sulbarán
  9. 36 F. Londoño
  10. 7 J. Meza

Bench: C. Faya, J. Perdomo, A. Uribe, J. Sánchez, J. Herrera, M. Villero, N. Hernández

Trujillanos FC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 V. Lopez
  2. 33 M. González
  3. 15 D. Rodríguez
  4. 4 E. Gnemmi
  5. 30 J. Granados
  6. 90 D. Linárez
  7. 10 E. Abreu
  8. 22 K. González
  9. 26 A. Araujo
  10. 9 F. González
  11. 7 C. Santos

Bench: J. González, Jorge Eliézer Echeverría Montilva, L. Mosquera, O. Garcia, J. Mendez, C. Gil, D. Nakache, Joantony Carmona, G. Parra

Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Deportivo La Guaira 5 · draws 3 · Trujillanos FC 1.

Deportivo La GuairaDrawsTrujillanos FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-25Trujillanos FC0-1Deportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División
2020-11-22Trujillanos FC0-2Deportivo La GuairaPrimera División
2020-10-20Deportivo La Guaira1-2Trujillanos FCPrimera División
2019-11-19Deportivo La Guaira2-0Trujillanos FCPrimera División
2019-11-15Trujillanos FC1-1Deportivo La GuairaPrimera División
2019-10-20Trujillanos FC1-1Deportivo La GuairaPrimera División
2019-04-28Deportivo La Guaira6-0Trujillanos FCPrimera División
2018-09-23Deportivo La Guaira2-2Trujillanos FCPrimera División
2018-04-08Trujillanos FC1-2Deportivo La GuairaPrimera División

Other Clausura - 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Deportivo La Guaira to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Deportivo La Guaira
Our pick: Deportivo La Guaira to win 18+ Bet Now