Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira: model vs market
| Source | Portuguesa FC | Draw | Deportivo La Guaira |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Published | 41% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | +13% | -6% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Portuguesa FC below the model: +12.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Portuguesa FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portuguesa FC | 2.39 | 2.39 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 2.77 | 2.77 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Portuguesa FC / Deportivo La Guaira)
- 1.08 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Portuguesa FC / Deportivo La Guaira)
- 0.97 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portuguesa FC goals. Columns: Deportivo La Guaira goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portuguesa FC | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portuguesa FC or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo La Guaira) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Portuguesa FC win by 2+ | 29% | 3.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira recent form
Portuguesa FC
2W 3D 1L
Deportivo La Guaira
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portuguesa FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Deportivo La Guaira away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-1
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Portuguesa FC at home only, Deportivo La Guaira away only.
Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Portuguesa FC 0 · draws 3 · Deportivo La Guaira 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Portuguesa FC | 0-2 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-05-09 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-1 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-04-20 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-08-31 | Deportivo La Guaira | 3-1 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-06-09 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-1 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-05-04 | Portuguesa FC | 1-2 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-03-31 | Portuguesa FC | 1-3 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Deportivo Tachira FC vs UCV — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Metropolitanos FC v Rayo Zuliano — match page 2026-10-10
- Trujillanos FC vs Puerto Cabello 2026-10-11
- Anzoátegui FC vs Carabobo FC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Caracas FC vs Zamora FC 2026-10-11
- Monagas SC v Estudiantes de Merida FC — match page 2026-10-11