Metropolitanos FC vs Rayo Zuliano: model vs market
| Source | Metropolitanos FC | Draw | Rayo Zuliano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Published | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Edge | +4% | -4% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.14 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Metropolitanos FC below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Metropolitanos FC vs Rayo Zuliano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Metropolitanos FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitanos FC | 1.25 | 1.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
| Rayo Zuliano | 9.25 | 9.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Metropolitanos FC and Rayo Zuliano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.30
- Attack rating (Metropolitanos FC / Rayo Zuliano)
- 1.52 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Metropolitanos FC / Rayo Zuliano)
- 0.79 / 1.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Metropolitanos FC vs Rayo Zuliano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Metropolitanos FC goals. Columns: Rayo Zuliano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Metropolitanos FC vs Rayo Zuliano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Metropolitanos FC vs Rayo Zuliano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metropolitanos FC | 73% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.86 | |
| Rayo Zuliano | 10% | 10.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Metropolitanos FC or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Rayo Zuliano) | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Metropolitanos FC win by 2+ | 58% | 1.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Metropolitanos FC and Rayo Zuliano recent form
Metropolitanos FC
5W 1D 0L
Rayo Zuliano
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Metropolitanos FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rayo Zuliano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-8
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 2.23
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Metropolitanos FC at home only, Rayo Zuliano away only.
Metropolitanos FC vs Rayo Zuliano head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Metropolitanos FC 3 · draws 0 · Rayo Zuliano 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Rayo Zuliano | 0-1 | Metropolitanos FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-10-05 | Rayo Zuliano | 0-1 | Metropolitanos FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-04-26 | Metropolitanos FC | 4-2 | Rayo Zuliano | Venezuela Primera División |
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