Anzoátegui FC vs Carabobo FC: model vs market
| Source | Anzoátegui FC | Draw | Carabobo FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 28% | 56% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 28% | 56% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Anzoátegui FC and Carabobo FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Anzoátegui FC / Carabobo FC)
- 0.71 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Anzoátegui FC / Carabobo FC)
- 1.37 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Anzoátegui FC vs Carabobo FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Anzoátegui FC goals. Columns: Carabobo FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Anzoátegui FC vs Carabobo FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Anzoátegui FC vs Carabobo FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Anzoátegui FC | 16% | 6.28 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Carabobo FC | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Anzoátegui FC or draw) | 44% | 2.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Carabobo FC) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Carabobo FC win by 2+ | 31% | 3.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Anzoátegui FC and Carabobo FC recent form
Anzoátegui FC
0W 1D 5L
Carabobo FC
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Anzoátegui FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-7
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.91
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 11
- They have won 3 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 22 matches.
Carabobo FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-6
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Anzoátegui FC at home only, Carabobo FC away only.
Anzoátegui FC vs Carabobo FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Anzoátegui FC 0 · draws 1 · Carabobo FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Carabobo FC | 6-3 | Anzoátegui FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-09-20 | Anzoátegui FC | 0-0 | Carabobo FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-04-13 | Carabobo FC | 1-0 | Anzoátegui FC | Venezuela Primera División |
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