Trujillanos FC vs Puerto Cabello: model vs market
| Source | Trujillanos FC | Draw | Puerto Cabello |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Market | 20% | 28% | 52% |
| Published | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Trujillanos FC vs Puerto Cabello odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Puerto Cabello, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trujillanos FC | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.27 | +0.00 |
| Puerto Cabello | 1.74 | 1.74 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Trujillanos FC and Puerto Cabello expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Trujillanos FC / Puerto Cabello)
- 0.97 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Trujillanos FC / Puerto Cabello)
- 1.47 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Trujillanos FC vs Puerto Cabello score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Trujillanos FC goals. Columns: Puerto Cabello goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Trujillanos FC vs Puerto Cabello goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Trujillanos FC vs Puerto Cabello
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trujillanos FC | 21% | 4.76 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Puerto Cabello | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Trujillanos FC or draw) | 48% | 2.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Puerto Cabello) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Puerto Cabello win by 2+ | 27% | 3.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Trujillanos FC and Puerto Cabello recent form
Trujillanos FC
1W 1D 4L
Puerto Cabello
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Trujillanos FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-8
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 3 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puerto Cabello away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-6
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Trujillanos FC at home only, Puerto Cabello away only.
Trujillanos FC vs Puerto Cabello head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Trujillanos FC 0 · draws 0 · Puerto Cabello 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Puerto Cabello | 3-1 | Trujillanos FC | Venezuela Primera División |
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