Caracas FC vs Zamora FC: model vs market
| Source | Caracas FC | Draw | Zamora FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Published | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | -11% | +4% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Caracas FC vs Zamora FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Caracas FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caracas FC | 1.71 | 1.71 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.36 | +0.00 |
| Zamora FC | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Caracas FC and Zamora FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Caracas FC / Zamora FC)
- 0.68 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Caracas FC / Zamora FC)
- 1.11 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Caracas FC vs Zamora FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Caracas FC goals. Columns: Zamora FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Caracas FC vs Zamora FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Caracas FC vs Zamora FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caracas FC | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Zamora FC | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Caracas FC or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Zamora FC) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Caracas FC win by 2+ | 20% | 5.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Caracas FC and Zamora FC recent form
Caracas FC
1W 3D 2L
Zamora FC
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Caracas FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zamora FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-6
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Caracas FC at home only, Zamora FC away only.
Caracas FC vs Zamora FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Caracas FC 1 · draws 1 · Zamora FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Zamora FC | 1-1 | Caracas FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-09-20 | Caracas FC | 2-0 | Zamora FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-04-13 | Zamora FC | 3-0 | Caracas FC | Venezuela Primera División |
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