Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC: model vs market
| Source | Monagas SC | Draw | Estudiantes de Merida FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Edge | 0% | +4% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monagas SC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monagas SC | 1.95 | 1.95 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Estudiantes de Merida FC | 3.38 | 3.38 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Monagas SC / Estudiantes de Merida FC)
- 0.96 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Monagas SC / Estudiantes de Merida FC)
- 0.92 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monagas SC goals. Columns: Estudiantes de Merida FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monagas SC | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Estudiantes de Merida FC | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.36 |
| No | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monagas SC or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monagas SC win by 2+ | 22% | 4.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC recent form
Monagas SC
3W 1D 2L
Estudiantes de Merida FC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monagas SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-4
- Win rate
- 42%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estudiantes de Merida FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-10
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monagas SC at home only, Estudiantes de Merida FC away only.
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Monagas SC 1 · draws 0 · Estudiantes de Merida FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 3-2 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-07-19 | Monagas SC | 1-0 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-02-06 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 2-0 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
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