Deportivo Tachira FC vs UCV: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Tachira FC | Draw | UCV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.10.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Tachira FC vs UCV odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Tachira FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Tachira FC | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.62 | +0.00 |
| UCV | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Tachira FC and UCV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Deportivo Tachira FC / UCV)
- 1.47 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Deportivo Tachira FC / UCV)
- 1.04 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Tachira FC vs UCV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Tachira FC goals. Columns: UCV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Tachira FC vs UCV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Tachira FC vs UCV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| UCV | 19% | 5.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Tachira FC or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or UCV) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Tachira FC win by 2+ | 32% | 3.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Tachira FC and UCV recent form
Deportivo Tachira FC
3W 2D 1L
UCV
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Tachira FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UCV away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Tachira FC at home only, UCV away only.
Deportivo Tachira FC vs UCV head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Deportivo Tachira FC 2 · draws 1 · UCV 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | UCV | 1-1 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-07-19 | UCV | 1-2 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-06-14 | UCV | 1-0 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-02-08 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 1-0 | UCV | Venezuela Primera División |
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