Updated

Venezuela Primera División · Clausura - 13

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC

Alin prediction Estudiantes de Merida FC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Estudiantes de Merida FCDrawMetropolitanos FC
Best market odds
Estudiantes de Merida FC2.12 Draw3.20 Metropolitanos FC4.23

Price as of

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC preview

In the fixture between Estudiantes de Merida FC and Metropolitanos FC, the probabilities show Estudiantes at 36% to win, while Metropolitanos is at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 5% chance. Metropolitanos has shown strong recent form, winning 6 consecutive matches, while Estudiantes has struggled, with only 1 win in their last 6.

The expected goals indicate Estudiantes at 0.86 and Metropolitanos at 1.87, suggesting a potential for Metropolitanos to score. With a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score, the match could see more goals than expected if Estudiantes improves their attack. However, if Estudiantes continues their recent poor form, they may struggle to find the net.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEstudiantes de Merida FCDrawMetropolitanos FC
Model16%24%60%
Market46%32%22%
Published38%30%32%
Edge-30%-8%+38%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Estudiantes de Merida FC, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 2.56Now 1.99 -0.57
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Estudiantes de Merida FC2.561.99-0.57
Draw3.162.88-0.28
Metropolitanos FC2.434.12+1.69

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Estudiantes de Merida FC and Metropolitanos FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.86Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.87Metropolitanos FC
Total expected goals
2.72
Attack rating (Estudiantes de Merida FC / Metropolitanos FC)
0.86 / 1.69
Defence rating (Estudiantes de Merida FC / Metropolitanos FC)
1.02 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 11.2% 11.4% 7.1% 5.1% 1 4.6% 11.6% 9.8% 6.1% 4.3% 2 2.4% 4.5% 4.2% 2.6% 1.9% 3 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Estudiantes de Merida FC goals. Columns: Metropolitanos FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Estudiantes de Merida FC38%2.60
Draw30%3.35
Metropolitanos FC32%3.15
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.95
Under 2.549%2.05
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.01
No50%1.99
Double chance1X (Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw)68%1.46
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Metropolitanos FC)62%1.62
Handicap -1Estudiantes de Merida FC win by 2+5%19.08
Push (exactly one goal)10%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Estudiantes de Merida FC and Metropolitanos FC recent form

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1W 1D 4L
Metropolitanos FC 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-4-4
Win rate
47%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.13
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Metropolitanos FC away

Record (W-D-L)
8-4-3
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
0.73
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Estudiantes de Merida FC at home only, Metropolitanos FC away only.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Estudiantes de Merida FC 3 · draws 1 · Metropolitanos FC 6.

Estudiantes de Merida FCDrawsMetropolitanos FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24Estudiantes de Merida FC0-1Metropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División
2026-05-08Metropolitanos FC2-0Estudiantes de Merida FCVenezuela Primera División
2026-04-26Metropolitanos FC2-0Estudiantes de Merida FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-09-12Metropolitanos FC1-0Estudiantes de Merida FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-04-05Estudiantes de Merida FC1-2Metropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-01-17Estudiantes de Merida FC3-2Metropolitanos FCFriendlies Clubs
2024-09-02Estudiantes de Merida FC4-0Metropolitanos FCPrimera División
2024-03-16Metropolitanos FC1-1Estudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División
2023-07-30Metropolitanos FC0-1Estudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División
2023-04-14Estudiantes de Merida FC0-2Metropolitanos FCPrimera División

Other Clausura - 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Estudiantes de Merida FC to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Estudiantes de Merida FC
Our pick: Estudiantes de Merida FC to win 18+ Bet Now