Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC preview
In the match between Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Puerto Cabello at 45%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (15%). Recent form indicates Puerto Cabello has 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Monagas SC has 4 wins and 1 loss in the same period.
The model suggests a 33% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance for both teams to score. However, Monagas SC's lower expected goals of 0.79 compared to Puerto Cabello's 1.23 could lead to fewer goals than anticipated. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC: model vs market
| Source | Puerto Cabello | Draw | Monagas SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 32% | 23% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Published | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Edge | -1% | +4% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.79.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Puerto Cabello, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puerto Cabello | 1.41 | 1.96 | +0.55 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.23 | -0.67 |
| Monagas SC | 6.50 | 3.40 | -3.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.01
- Attack rating (Puerto Cabello / Monagas SC)
- 0.99 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Puerto Cabello / Monagas SC)
- 0.71 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Puerto Cabello goals. Columns: Monagas SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puerto Cabello | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Monagas SC | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.51 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Puerto Cabello or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Monagas SC) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Puerto Cabello win by 2+ | 21% | 4.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC recent form
Puerto Cabello
2W 3D 1L
Monagas SC
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Puerto Cabello at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-3
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monagas SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-9
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Puerto Cabello at home only, Monagas SC away only.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Puerto Cabello 3 · draws 4 · Monagas SC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Monagas SC | 1-1 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-03-04 | Puerto Cabello | 0-0 | Monagas SC | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2025-11-04 | Puerto Cabello | 3-2 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-10-21 | Monagas SC | 1-2 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-08-06 | Puerto Cabello | 2-3 | Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela |
| 2025-08-03 | Monagas SC | 1-1 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-07-29 | Monagas SC | 2-0 | Puerto Cabello | Copa Venezuela |
| 2025-02-23 | Puerto Cabello | 1-0 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2024-09-27 | Monagas SC | 2-1 | Puerto Cabello | Primera División |
| 2024-03-31 | Puerto Cabello | 2-2 | Monagas SC | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- Zamora FC vs Anzoátegui FC 2026-10-17
- Deportivo La Guaira vs Trujillanos FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Carabobo FC v Deportivo Tachira FC — match page 2026-10-17
- Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC 2026-10-18
- UCV vs Portuguesa FC — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Rayo Zuliano vs Caracas FC 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Puerto Cabello, previous: Trujillanos FC – Puerto Cabello, 2026-10-11
- Monagas SC, previous: Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC: odds and pick