Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello preview
In the fixture between Monagas SC and Puerto Cabello, the 1X2 probabilities show Monagas SC at 34%, a draw at 28%, and Puerto Cabello at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with an 8% probability.
Both teams have shown competitive form recently, with Monagas SC having a record of D-W-D-W-W-L and Puerto Cabello at D-W-W-D-L-D. The expected goals are close, with Monagas SC at 1.37 and Puerto Cabello at 1.32. The model suggests a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, but factors like recent form or head-to-head results could influence the outcome.
Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello: model vs market
| Source | Monagas SC | Draw | Puerto Cabello |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Puerto Cabello, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monagas SC | 2.72 | 2.90 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.14 | 3.25 | +0.11 |
| Puerto Cabello | 2.31 | 2.26 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monagas SC and Puerto Cabello expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Monagas SC / Puerto Cabello)
- 1.13 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Monagas SC / Puerto Cabello)
- 1.05 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monagas SC goals. Columns: Puerto Cabello goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monagas SC | 33% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Puerto Cabello | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monagas SC or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Puerto Cabello) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Puerto Cabello win by 2+ | 16% | 6.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monagas SC and Puerto Cabello recent form
Monagas SC
3W 2D 1L
Puerto Cabello
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monagas SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-4
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
Puerto Cabello away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-6
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monagas SC at home only, Puerto Cabello away only.
Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Monagas SC 3 · draws 4 · Puerto Cabello 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Puerto Cabello | 3-3 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-04-25 | Monagas SC | 1-1 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-03-04 | Puerto Cabello | 0-0 | Monagas SC | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2025-11-04 | Puerto Cabello | 3-2 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-10-21 | Monagas SC | 1-2 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-08-06 | Puerto Cabello | 2-3 | Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela |
| 2025-08-03 | Monagas SC | 1-1 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-07-29 | Monagas SC | 2-0 | Puerto Cabello | Copa Venezuela |
| 2025-02-23 | Puerto Cabello | 1-0 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2024-09-27 | Monagas SC | 2-1 | Puerto Cabello | Primera División |
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Monagas SC, previous: Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC prediction
- Monagas SC, next: Deportivo Tachira FC vs Monagas SC prediction
- Puerto Cabello, previous: Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC prediction
- Puerto Cabello, next: Puerto Cabello vs Caracas FC: odds and pick