Puerto Cabello vs Caracas FC preview
In the fixture between Puerto Cabello and Caracas FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Puerto Cabello at 52%, while Caracas FC is at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Puerto Cabello has an expected goals figure of 1.59 compared to Caracas FC's 0.94, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the match could deviate from these predictions. Both teams to score stands at 50%, suggesting that Caracas FC has a reasonable chance of finding the net. Additionally, recent form shows Puerto Cabello with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Caracas FC has won 4 of their last 6, which could influence the outcome.
Puerto Cabello vs Caracas FC: model vs market
| Source | Puerto Cabello | Draw | Caracas FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 0.94.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Puerto Cabello and Caracas FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Puerto Cabello / Caracas FC)
- 1.14 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Puerto Cabello / Caracas FC)
- 0.87 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Puerto Cabello vs Caracas FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Puerto Cabello goals. Columns: Caracas FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Puerto Cabello vs Caracas FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Puerto Cabello vs Caracas FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puerto Cabello | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Caracas FC | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Puerto Cabello or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Caracas FC) | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Puerto Cabello win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Puerto Cabello and Caracas FC recent form
Puerto Cabello
2W 3D 1L
Caracas FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Puerto Cabello at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caracas FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-3
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.85
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Puerto Cabello at home only, Caracas FC away only.
Puerto Cabello vs Caracas FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Puerto Cabello 1 · draws 3 · Caracas FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Puerto Cabello | 3-1 | Caracas FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-02-07 | Caracas FC | 1-1 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-08-25 | Puerto Cabello | 0-0 | Caracas FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-03-15 | Caracas FC | 0-0 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Puerto Cabello, previous: Monagas SC vs Puerto Cabello: odds and pick
- Caracas FC, previous: Caracas FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC prediction