Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC preview
In the match between Deportivo La Guaira and Metropolitanos FC, the 1X2 probabilities show both teams at 35%, with a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, reflecting the expected goals of 1.19 for Deportivo La Guaira and 2.15 for Metropolitanos FC.
Metropolitanos FC is in strong recent form, with 6 consecutive matches without a loss, while Deportivo La Guaira has struggled, managing only 1 win in their last 6 games. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 62%. However, if Deportivo La Guaira improves their performance, the predicted outcome could change.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo La Guaira | Draw | Metropolitanos FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 22% | 58% |
| Market | 40% | 32% | 27% |
| Published | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Edge | -5% | -3% | +8% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo La Guaira, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Guaira | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.83 | 2.83 | +0.00 |
| Metropolitanos FC | 3.32 | 3.32 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo La Guaira and Metropolitanos FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Deportivo La Guaira / Metropolitanos FC)
- 1.06 / 1.69
- Defence rating (Deportivo La Guaira / Metropolitanos FC)
- 1.17 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo La Guaira goals. Columns: Metropolitanos FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Metropolitanos FC | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo La Guaira or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Metropolitanos FC) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo La Guaira win by 2+ | 8% | 12.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo La Guaira and Metropolitanos FC recent form
Deportivo La Guaira
1W 1D 4L
Metropolitanos FC
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo La Guaira at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Metropolitanos FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo La Guaira at home only, Metropolitanos FC away only.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Deportivo La Guaira 2 · draws 1 · Metropolitanos FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-2 | Metropolitanos FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-02-08 | Metropolitanos FC | 2-2 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-08-10 | Metropolitanos FC | 1-3 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-03-01 | Deportivo La Guaira | 4-1 | Metropolitanos FC | Venezuela Primera División |
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 1 fixtures
- Monagas SC v Puerto Cabello — match page 2026-10-24
- Caracas FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Portuguesa FC vs Carabobo FC 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Deportivo La Guaira, previous: Deportivo La Guaira v Trujillanos FC analysis
- Deportivo La Guaira, next: Carabobo FC – Deportivo La Guaira, 2026-10-28
- Metropolitanos FC, previous: Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC: odds and pick
- Metropolitanos FC, next: Metropolitanos FC v Portuguesa FC analysis