Deportivo La Guaira vs Portuguesa FC preview
Deportivo La Guaira has a 43% chance to win against Portuguesa FC, who have a 28% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% probability. Deportivo La Guaira's expected goals stand at 1.44, while Portuguesa FC's is lower at 1.13.
Both teams to score has a 53% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 47%. Deportivo La Guaira's recent form shows 1 draw and 5 losses, while Portuguesa FC has 2 wins in their last 5 matches. The head-to-head record favors Deportivo La Guaira with 4 wins and 4 draws in the last 10 encounters. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Portuguesa FC: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo La Guaira | Draw | Portuguesa FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 1.13.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Deportivo La Guaira and Portuguesa FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Deportivo La Guaira / Portuguesa FC)
- 1.11 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Deportivo La Guaira / Portuguesa FC)
- 1.18 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Portuguesa FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo La Guaira goals. Columns: Portuguesa FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Portuguesa FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo La Guaira vs Portuguesa FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Portuguesa FC | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo La Guaira or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Portuguesa FC) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo La Guaira win by 2+ | 22% | 4.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo La Guaira and Portuguesa FC recent form
Deportivo La Guaira
0W 2D 4L
Portuguesa FC
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo La Guaira at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portuguesa FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-8-5
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo La Guaira at home only, Portuguesa FC away only.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Portuguesa FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo La Guaira 4 · draws 4 · Portuguesa FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Portuguesa FC | 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-05-23 | Portuguesa FC | 0-2 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-05-09 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-1 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-04-20 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-08-31 | Deportivo La Guaira | 3-1 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-06-09 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-1 | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-05-04 | Portuguesa FC | 1-2 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-03-31 | Portuguesa FC | 1-3 | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2024-10-04 | Portuguesa FC | 2-1 | Deportivo La Guaira | Primera División |
| 2024-04-07 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-2 | Portuguesa FC | Primera División |
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 3 fixtures
- Puerto Cabello vs Deportivo Tachira FC 2026-10-31
- Caracas FC v Monagas SC — match page 2026-10-31
- Carabobo FC vs Metropolitanos FC 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Deportivo La Guaira, previous: Carabobo FC – Deportivo La Guaira, 2026-10-28
- Portuguesa FC, previous: Metropolitanos FC v Portuguesa FC analysis