Updated

Venezuela Primera División · Clausura - Quadrangular - 4

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira

· Estadio General Jose Antonio Paez, Acarigua

Alin prediction Portuguesa FC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Portuguesa FCDrawDeportivo La Guaira
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.19.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Portuguesa FC2.65 Draw3.30 Deportivo La Guaira2.55

Price as of

Expected return at 2.65: -1.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 6 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira preview

In the fixture between Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira, the 1X2 probabilities show Portuguesa FC at 46%, while both teams share a 27% chance of a draw or a win for Deportivo La Guaira. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which has a 9% probability.

Portuguesa FC has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to Deportivo La Guaira's 1.19. While there is a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score, recent form could impact the outcome. Portuguesa FC has drawn three of their last five matches, while Deportivo La Guaira has not won in their last six games.

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePortuguesa FCDrawDeportivo La Guaira
Model46%27%27%
Market34%29%37%
Published37%28%35%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.19.
  • The market prices Portuguesa FC below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Portuguesa FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.62Now 2.62 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Portuguesa FC2.622.62+0.00
Draw3.123.12+0.00
Deportivo La Guaira2.422.42+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Portuguesa FC
1.19Deportivo La Guaira
Total expected goals
2.80
Attack rating (Portuguesa FC / Deportivo La Guaira)
0.89 / 1.14
Defence rating (Portuguesa FC / Deportivo La Guaira)
0.94 / 1.32

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 6.1% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 1 8.7% 12.8% 6.9% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.9% 9.4% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 3 4.3% 5.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.5% 2.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Portuguesa FC goals. Columns: Deportivo La Guaira goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Portuguesa FC37%2.69
Draw28%3.53
Deportivo La Guaira35%2.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.89
Under 2.547%2.13
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Portuguesa FC or draw)65%1.53
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Deportivo La Guaira)63%1.59
Handicap -1Portuguesa FC win by 2+25%4.07
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira recent form

Portuguesa FC 0W 4D 2L
Deportivo La Guaira 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Portuguesa FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-6-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.39
Goals against / match
0.89
Clean sheets
8 of 18
  • They have won 11 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Deportivo La Guaira away

Record (W-D-L)
8-7-2
Win rate
47%
Goals for / match
1.35
Goals against / match
0.88
Clean sheets
6 of 17
  • They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Portuguesa FC at home only, Deportivo La Guaira away only.

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Portuguesa FC 1 · draws 5 · Deportivo La Guaira 4.

Portuguesa FCDrawsDeportivo La Guaira
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-11-01Deportivo La Guaira2-2Portuguesa FCVenezuela Primera División
2026-10-10Portuguesa FC0-0Deportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División
2026-05-23Portuguesa FC0-2Deportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División
2026-05-09Deportivo La Guaira1-1Portuguesa FCVenezuela Primera División
2026-04-20Deportivo La Guaira0-0Portuguesa FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-08-31Deportivo La Guaira3-1Portuguesa FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-06-09Deportivo La Guaira1-1Portuguesa FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-05-04Portuguesa FC1-2Deportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División
2025-03-31Portuguesa FC1-3Deportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División
2024-10-04Portuguesa FC2-1Deportivo La GuairaPrimera División

Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 4 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Portuguesa FC to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Portuguesa FC
Our pick: Portuguesa FC to win 18+ Bet Now