Updated

Venezuela Primera División · Clausura - Quadrangular - 4

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC

· Estadio Brigido Iriarte, Caracas

Alin prediction Carabobo FC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Metropolitanos FCDrawCarabobo FC
  • WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Carabobo FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Metropolitanos FC3.40 Draw3.60 Carabobo FC2.05

Price as of

Expected return at 2.05: -17.8% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 6 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC preview

In the match between Metropolitanos FC and Carabobo FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Carabobo FC at 40% and Metropolitanos FC at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Carabobo FC's stronger recent form, having won 3 of their last 6 matches compared to Metropolitanos FC's 2 wins.

Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, the expected goals suggest that Metropolitanos FC is likely to score 1.53 while Carabobo FC is at 1.05. This discrepancy means that if Metropolitanos FC underperforms in attack, the match could end with fewer goals than anticipated.

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMetropolitanos FCDrawCarabobo FC
Model47%28%25%
Market28%27%45%
Published33%27%40%
Edge+5%0%-5%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Carabobo FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.00Now 2.00 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Metropolitanos FC3.263.26+0.00
Draw3.343.34+0.00
Carabobo FC2.002.00+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Metropolitanos FC and Carabobo FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Metropolitanos FC
1.05Carabobo FC
Total expected goals
2.58
Attack rating (Metropolitanos FC / Carabobo FC)
1.44 / 1.24
Defence rating (Metropolitanos FC / Carabobo FC)
0.77 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.8% 6.7% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% 1 10.4% 13.4% 6.4% 2.2% 0.7% 2 8.9% 9.3% 4.9% 1.7% 0.6% 3 4.5% 4.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 2.4% 2.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Metropolitanos FC goals. Columns: Carabobo FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Metropolitanos FC33%3.07
Draw27%3.66
Carabobo FC40%2.49
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.10
Under 2.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.09
Double chance1X (Metropolitanos FC or draw)60%1.67
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Carabobo FC)67%1.48
Handicap -1Carabobo FC win by 2+10%10.33
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Metropolitanos FC and Carabobo FC recent form

Metropolitanos FC 2W 4D 0L
Carabobo FC 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Metropolitanos FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-4-2
Win rate
65%
Goals for / match
1.88
Goals against / match
0.88
Clean sheets
8 of 17
  • They have won 19 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Carabobo FC away

Record (W-D-L)
5-6-6
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.47
Goals against / match
1.24
Clean sheets
4 of 17
  • They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Metropolitanos FC at home only, Carabobo FC away only.

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Metropolitanos FC 0 · draws 5 · Carabobo FC 5.

Metropolitanos FCDrawsCarabobo FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-11-01Carabobo FC1-1Metropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División
2026-08-16Carabobo FC1-0Metropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División
2026-05-31Metropolitanos FC1-5Carabobo FCVenezuela Primera División
2026-05-03Carabobo FC0-0Metropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División
2026-02-20Metropolitanos FC1-1Carabobo FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-11-05Metropolitanos FC0-4Carabobo FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-10-22Carabobo FC1-0Metropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-08-02Carabobo FC0-0Metropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-06-07Carabobo FC2-2Metropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División
2025-05-02Metropolitanos FC1-3Carabobo FCVenezuela Primera División

Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 4 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Carabobo FC to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Carabobo FC
Our pick: Carabobo FC to win 18+ Bet Now