Monagas SC vs Caracas FC preview
In the fixture between Monagas SC and Caracas FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Monagas SC at 42% and Caracas FC at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Monagas SC has an expected goals figure of 1.63, while Caracas FC sits at 1.32.
Both teams to score is projected at 60%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 57%. Recent form indicates Monagas SC has two wins in their last five matches, while Caracas FC has three wins in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, which suggests that unexpected outcomes could occur, particularly given the close nature of their recent performances and head-to-head results.
Monagas SC vs Caracas FC: model vs market
| Source | Monagas SC | Draw | Caracas FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.32.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Monagas SC vs Caracas FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monagas SC, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monagas SC | 2.10 | 2.23 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.25 | -0.15 |
| Caracas FC | 3.10 | 2.94 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monagas SC and Caracas FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Monagas SC / Caracas FC)
- 1.12 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Monagas SC / Caracas FC)
- 1.16 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monagas SC vs Caracas FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monagas SC goals. Columns: Caracas FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monagas SC vs Caracas FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monagas SC vs Caracas FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monagas SC | 42% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Caracas FC | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monagas SC or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Caracas FC) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monagas SC win by 2+ | 23% | 4.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monagas SC and Caracas FC recent form
Monagas SC
2W 2D 2L
Caracas FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monagas SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-5
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
Caracas FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monagas SC at home only, Caracas FC away only.
Monagas SC vs Caracas FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Monagas SC 4 · draws 3 · Caracas FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | Caracas FC | 2-3 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-09-13 | Caracas FC | 0-1 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-03-22 | Monagas SC | 1-1 | Caracas FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-09-28 | Monagas SC | 2-2 | Caracas FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-04-18 | Caracas FC | 1-4 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2024-09-20 | Caracas FC | 1-2 | Monagas SC | Primera División |
| 2024-03-24 | Monagas SC | 1-1 | Caracas FC | Primera División |
| 2024-01-28 | Monagas SC | 2-3 | Caracas FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-06-24 | Caracas FC | 2-0 | Monagas SC | Primera División |
| 2023-05-20 | Monagas SC | 0-2 | Caracas FC | Primera División |
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Monagas SC, previous: Caracas FC vs Monagas SC prediction
- Monagas SC, next: Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC: odds and pick
- Caracas FC, previous: Caracas FC vs Monagas SC prediction
- Caracas FC, next: Caracas FC vs Puerto Cabello prediction