Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC preview
In the match between Monagas SC and Deportivo Tachira FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo Tachira FC at 50% to win, compared to Monagas SC's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.40 for Monagas SC and 1.96 for Deportivo Tachira FC.
Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Deportivo Tachira FC winning 6 of their last 7 matches. The model predicts a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 66%. However, if Monagas SC can improve their defense, they might disrupt the expected outcome.
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC: model vs market
| Source | Monagas SC | Draw | Deportivo Tachira FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Monagas SC and Deportivo Tachira FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Monagas SC / Deportivo Tachira FC)
- 1.12 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Monagas SC / Deportivo Tachira FC)
- 1.16 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monagas SC goals. Columns: Deportivo Tachira FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monagas SC | 26% | 3.78 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Deportivo Tachira FC | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.53 |
| No | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monagas SC or draw) | 50% | 1.99 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Tachira FC) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Tachira FC win by 2+ | 29% | 3.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monagas SC and Deportivo Tachira FC recent form
Monagas SC
2W 2D 2L
Deportivo Tachira FC
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monagas SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-5
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
Deportivo Tachira FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.24
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 20 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monagas SC at home only, Deportivo Tachira FC away only.
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Monagas SC 2 · draws 2 · Deportivo Tachira FC 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 2-0 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-10-21 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 1-1 | Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela |
| 2026-08-16 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 3-2 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-02-22 | Monagas SC | 2-3 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-09-03 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 0-1 | Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela |
| 2025-08-20 | Monagas SC | 1-0 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Copa Venezuela |
| 2025-07-13 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 2-1 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-01-31 | Monagas SC | 1-4 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2024-09-15 | Monagas SC | 0-0 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Primera División |
| 2024-03-21 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 1-0 | Monagas SC | Primera División |
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 5 fixtures
- Caracas FC vs Puerto Cabello 2026-11-07
- Portuguesa FC v Metropolitanos FC — match page 2026-11-08
- Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Monagas SC, previous: Monagas SC vs Caracas FC: odds and pick
- Deportivo Tachira FC, previous: Deportivo Tachira FC vs Puerto Cabello prediction