Bulgaria vs Estonia: model vs market
| Source | Bulgaria | Draw | Estonia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Market | 54% | 28% | 19% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | -25% | -3% | +27% |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Bulgaria vs Estonia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bulgaria, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 1.53 | 1.75 | +0.22 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.40 | -0.20 |
| Estonia | 6.00 | 5.00 | -1.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bulgaria and Estonia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Bulgaria / Estonia)
- 0.75 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Bulgaria / Estonia)
- 1.82 / 1.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bulgaria vs Estonia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bulgaria goals. Columns: Estonia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bulgaria vs Estonia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bulgaria vs Estonia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bulgaria | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Estonia | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bulgaria or draw) | 74% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Estonia) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bulgaria win by 2+ | 14% | 7.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bulgaria and Estonia recent form
Bulgaria
1W 0D 5L
Estonia
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bulgaria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Estonia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Bulgaria at home only, Estonia away only.
Other League C - 2 fixtures
- Slovakia vs Kazakhstan 2026-09-29
- Luxembourg vs Iceland 2026-09-29
- San Marino v Albania — match page 2026-09-29