San Marino vs Albania: model vs market
| Source | San Marino | Draw | Albania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 1% | 4% | 95% |
| Market | 2% | 7% | 91% |
| Published | 2% | 6% | 92% |
| Edge | -2% | -2% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.04 vs 0.34.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Albania below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
San Marino vs Albania odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Albania, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino | 56.00 | 41.00 | -15.00 |
| Draw | 14.00 | 14.50 | +0.50 |
| Albania | 1.03 | 1.04 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Marino and Albania expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.38
- Attack rating (San Marino / Albania)
- 0.44 / 0.88
- Defence rating (San Marino / Albania)
- 3.38 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Marino vs Albania score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Marino goals. Columns: Albania goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Marino vs Albania goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 28%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Marino vs Albania
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Marino | 2% | 51.78 |
| Draw | 6% | 16.79 | |
| Albania | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28% | 3.52 |
| No | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Marino or draw) | 8% | 12.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 94% | 1.06 | |
| X2 (draw or Albania) | 98% | 1.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Albania win by 2+ | 86% | 1.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 9% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
San Marino and Albania recent form
San Marino
0W 0D 6L
Albania
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Marino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 7.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: San Marino at home only, Albania away only.
San Marino vs Albania head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: San Marino 0 · draws 0 · Albania 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-09-08 | Albania | 5-0 | San Marino | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2021-03-31 | San Marino | 0-2 | Albania | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Other League C - 2 fixtures
- Slovakia vs Kazakhstan 2026-09-29
- Luxembourg vs Iceland 2026-09-29
- Bulgaria v Estonia — match page 2026-09-29