Slovakia vs Kazakhstan: model vs market
| Source | Slovakia | Draw | Kazakhstan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Published | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Edge | -43% | +10% | +33% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Slovakia vs Kazakhstan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Slovakia, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia | 1.29 | 1.25 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 4.60 | 5.91 | +1.31 |
| Kazakhstan | 10.00 | 12.41 | +2.41 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Slovakia and Kazakhstan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (Slovakia / Kazakhstan)
- 1.17 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Slovakia / Kazakhstan)
- 1.24 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Slovakia vs Kazakhstan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Slovakia goals. Columns: Kazakhstan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Slovakia vs Kazakhstan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Slovakia vs Kazakhstan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Slovakia | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.40 | |
| Kazakhstan | 16% | 6.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Slovakia or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Kazakhstan) | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Slovakia win by 2+ | 16% | 6.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Slovakia and Kazakhstan recent form
Slovakia
3W 0D 3L
Kazakhstan
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Slovakia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Kazakhstan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Slovakia at home only, Kazakhstan away only.
Slovakia vs Kazakhstan head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Slovakia 0 · draws 0 · Kazakhstan 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-13 | Kazakhstan | 2-1 | Slovakia | UEFA Nations League |
| 2022-06-06 | Slovakia | 0-1 | Kazakhstan | UEFA Nations League |
Other League C - 2 fixtures
- Luxembourg vs Iceland 2026-09-29
- Bulgaria v Estonia — match page 2026-09-29
- San Marino v Albania — match page 2026-09-29